The selling pressure on altcoins has collapsed to 2020 lows: is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet highly intriguing signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached a five-year low. On the other hand, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is steadily approaching historical levels that preceded the start of rallies in previous cycles.
A key indicator tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. This suggests that sellers have dominated spot markets for an extended period, while buying activity remains at an extremely low level. At the beginning of 2025, the metric nearly hit zero, but then reversed downward again and continued its decline in the following months.
Two Faces of One Market: Sellers Exhausted, but Capital Hesitates
Despite the grim picture of spot selling, CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index paints a completely different scenario. This indicator currently stands at 18.48. Historically, values above 20 signal the start of an active capital shift from Bitcoin to altcoins, marking the beginning of a full-fledged "altcoin season." We are just one step away from this threshold.
Analysts are divided on the outlook. For example, Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already avoided new all-time lows. In his assessment, the market has entered the "depression" phase of the cycle, where retail investors exit projects while large players ("whales") quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flows becoming highly selective.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid holds a more bearish view. He argues that a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the boom of 2020-2021, requires massive money printing akin to what triggered the previous cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028-2029.
My analysis: The divergence between extremely low selling pressure (often a sign of capitulation and reversal) and the still restrained Altcoin Season Index creates a classic zone of uncertainty. We see seller exhaustion but no aggressive buyer. This could mean the market is consolidating ahead of a powerful yet selective upward move. Investors should prepare for the next altcoin season to be not a universal rally, but a rally of "quality" projects with real liquidity and utility.