Accumulation Phase: Two CryptoQuant Signals Indicate the Approaching Altcoin Season
Selling pressure on altcoins on spot exchanges has collapsed to levels not seen since 2020. In my estimation, this extreme value signals that the market is going through the final stage of capitulation before a potential reversal. However, another indicator from CryptoQuant paints a different, more optimistic picture.
The metric tracking the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has fallen to a five-year low. This means that sellers on the spot market have been dominating for an extended period. CryptoQuant analysts note that we are observing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges. The indicator nearly returned to zero at the beginning of 2025, but then reversed downward again and continued its decline in the following months.
At the same time, the alternative Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant, measured over a 180-day period, is approaching the critical threshold of 20 points. It currently stands at 18.48. Historically, crossing this threshold signaled the start of an active capital flow from Bitcoin into altcoins. The market is essentially on the brink but has not yet taken the decisive step.
Opinions Diverge: From Depression to Selective Growth
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He believes that the increase in Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He argues that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020-2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028-2029.
My analysis: the divergence of these two indicators is a classic sign of a market "bottom." Extreme spot selling pressure indicates retail investor capitulation, while the Altcoin Season Index approaching the threshold points to hidden accumulation by large players. I lean towards the view that we are in the final phase of consolidation before a selective but powerful rally in the strongest altcoins.