The altcoin season index is on the verge of awakening: selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows.
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has collapsed to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is stubbornly approaching a key level that historically precedes the start of a massive rally.
Let's break down this data. The metric tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes has fallen to nearly zero. This means that sellers on the spot market have almost exhausted their potential. CryptoQuant analyst under the nickname IT Tech emphasizes: "This isn't about a drawdown. We are observing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges." Such a prolonged period of seller dominance is an extreme phenomenon that often precedes a trend reversal.
Two Faces of One Market
However, the second indicator paints a different picture. The 180-day Altcoin Season Index stands at 18.48. Historically, the threshold for the start of an "altcoin season" is above 20. That is, the market has not yet crossed this line but is dangerously close to it. This is a classic setup: exhaustion of sellers on the spot (first signal) combined with a growing probability of capital flowing from BTC and ETH into altcoins (second signal).
Expert opinions diverge. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already passed the "depression" phase of the current cycle. According to him, small players are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
In contrast, trader Crypto Kid is skeptical. He believes that for a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, massive money printing is needed, which can be expected no earlier than 2028–2029.
My analysis: The divergence between extremely low selling pressure and the still-unactivated season index is a classic sign of accumulation. The market is in a phase where the "weak hand" has already dumped assets, and "smart money" is beginning to eye the most promising projects. I expect that a breakout above the 20 mark on the Altcoin Season Index will trigger the first wave of growth, but it will be extremely selective. Not all altcoins will soar—only those with real liquidity and strong fundamentals.