The selling pressure on altcoins has dropped to 2020 lows: is an altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has collapsed to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, according to an alternative indicator, net selling outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This divergence in data warrants close attention from any professional market participant.
Two CryptoQuant Indicators: A Picture of Divergence
The first indicator tracks the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH). Its drop to a five-year low suggests that spot sellers are consistently dominating buyers. The indicator nearly reached zero in early 2025, then reversed downward again and continued to decline in the following months.
CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech comments: "This isn't about a drawdown. We are seeing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges." This points to deep structural pressure, not a short-term correction.
However, the Altcoin Season Index from the same platform paints a different picture. Its current 180-day value stands at 18.48, approaching historical levels that preceded the start of an altcoin season. The activation threshold is above 20. This means the market has not yet reached the point of capital rotation but is in close proximity to it.
Analyst Opinions Diverge: To Wait or Not?
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: at this stage, small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets.
He adds: "The rise in Bitcoin dominance will likely come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins. This doesn't mean all altcoins will disappear. Rather, capital will flow very selectively."
At the same time, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario is possible closer to 2028 or 2029.
My analysis: The current situation is a classic "calm before the storm" or a bull trap. 15-month net selling indicates seller exhaustion, but without a powerful catalyst (e.g., Fed rate cuts or a new narrative), the altcoin season could be delayed. However, the index's proximity to threshold values suggests the market is at a bifurcation point. I expect that within the next 2-3 months, we will see either a sharp altcoin rally or a deep correction that will finally "wash out" weak hands. Keep an eye on liquidity volume in stablecoins — this will be the key trigger.