Crypto news

Mining in Russia has finally come out of the shadows. It is no longer a gray area, but a fully legitimate business with transparent rules of the game. Attempts to hide cryptocurrency mining are doomed to fail—the colossal energy consumption makes illegal farms visible to regulatory authorities.

Regulation: New Rules and Tax Incentives

The basic law on mining regulation came into force at the end of 2024. Legal entities are now allowed to mine digital currencies after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of up to 6000 kWh has been set, along with an obligation to report to the tax service. However, in my observation, many private miners have faced a complex bureaucratic procedure and have not submitted the documents.

Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach. The market did not feel any real harsh sanctions—penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. The situation is now changing: news of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to frighten the industry. At the same time, the law allows avoiding severe punishment if unpaid taxes are fully compensated. I expect a lenient approach towards small entrepreneurs—by analogy with utility debts, where warnings are issued first, and account blocking remains a last resort.

Paradoxically, the new rules benefit the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now, the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals can write off the cost of machinery in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more. Expenses for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime are officially included in costs. According to my calculations, the profit tax will effectively be zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

Why Is It Impossible to Hide Mining?

Hiding a crypto farm is technically unrealistic. This process creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators see their electricity bills skyrocket instantly, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect abnormal readings. For this reason, detecting gray sites is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized, as they know how to operate within the legal framework.

Bitcoin Forecast: Cycle Target of $180–250 Thousand

In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025. However, on October 11, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year. At the same time, the final price targets remained the same. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average figure is set at $250 thousand. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward halving.

Probability of an Extreme Scenario

I have thoroughly worked out a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the price drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could shut down in one day. Due to the built-in rule of difficulty adjustment, which occurs every 2016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will be greatly extended. This will trigger an avalanche of miners leaving the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

Nevertheless, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the price as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.

Analyst's Opinion: The legalization of mining in Russia is not just the removal of bans, but the creation of a full-fledged ecosystem with clear taxes and depreciation. However, the main risk for Bitcoin now is not regulation, but the excessive centralization of hashrate in the US, which could lead to a "death spiral" scenario under unfavorable circumstances.