Altcoins on the verge of a rally: key index plunges to 2020 lows
The altcoin market is sending powerful, albeit contradictory, signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has hit a five-year low, returning to 2020 levels. On the other hand, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is steadily climbing, approaching historical levels seen before past bull cycles. This is a classic accumulation pattern ahead of a major move.
The key metric that caught my attention is the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH). This indicator has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. Essentially, we are seeing sellers dominate the spot market for 15 consecutive months. However, as history shows, such extreme levels of 'capitulation' often precede a trend reversal and the start of aggressive accumulation by large players.
Two Views on One Market
The paradox of the situation is that the Altcoin Season Index (180-day) paints a completely different picture. It currently sits at 18.48, approaching the threshold of 20 points. Historically, crossing this mark signals the start of a full-fledged altcoin season, when capital begins to flow en masse from Bitcoin into riskier assets.
Analysts are divided. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will not update their historical lows. In his assessment, the market has entered the 'depression' phase of the current cycle, where retail investors exit projects while 'whales' continue to quietly accumulate assets. He expects Bitcoin's dominance to grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital inflow into alts being highly selective.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that for a true altcoin season similar to 2020-2021, massive money printing is necessary, which he does not expect until 2028-2029.
My analysis: I lean towards the view that we are in the final stage of accumulation. The drop in selling pressure to 2020 lows is not just a technical signal but a fundamental indicator of seller exhaustion. Combining this with the Altcoin Season Index approaching its threshold creates an extremely explosive mix. The market is ready for a reversal, but it will not be total—it will be highly selective, with capital flowing into projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals. Players should prepare for volatility and focus on quality, not quantity.