The altcoin index is at a five-year low: the market is preparing for a reversal
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to a low last seen in 2020. On the other hand, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant over a 180-day period is approaching threshold levels that historically precede the start of a massive altcoin rally.
Let's break down what lies behind these numbers and how to interpret the current situation.
Two Faces of One Market: Sales Exhausted, but Capital Hasn't Arrived Yet
The first indicator — the difference between spot buying and selling volumes for altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) — has fallen to a five-year low. This means that sellers on the spot market have practically exhausted their potential. Net selling (sales minus purchases) has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months, an unprecedentedly long period of pressure. As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech notes, this is not just a correction, but a systematic washout of weak hands.
Simultaneously, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index stands at 18.48. For an "altcoin season" to activate, this index needs to rise above 20. In other words, the market is one step away from the threshold beyond which capital begins to flow from Bitcoin and Ethereum into a broader range of altcoins. We are seeing a classic picture: exhaustion of sales against the backdrop of approaching a critical index level.
Opinions Diverge: Bears vs. Realists
There is no consensus among analysts. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle. In his view, large holders (whales) are quietly accumulating assets, while retail investors are exiting projects. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more pessimistic. He believes that for a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020-2021 cycle, massive fiat money issuance is necessary. According to his estimates, such a scenario is possible no earlier than 2028-2029.
My analysis: I lean towards a more restrained but positive scenario. The five-year low in selling pressure is a powerful technical signal. It suggests that the "bottom" for many altcoins has likely already been formed. However, a trigger is needed to start a broad rally — either a new influx of liquidity or a significant positive catalyst (e.g., approval of an altcoin ETF or easing of Fed monetary policy). The market is at a bifurcation point: either we will see a sharp reversal and the start of an altcoin season in the coming months, or consolidation will drag on until macroeconomic stimuli appear. In any case, current levels look attractive for long-term accumulation, but with a high degree of selectivity.