The selling pressure on altcoins has hit a 2020 low: the altcoin season is on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, the CryptoQuant Altcoin Season Index has come very close to threshold values that historically preceded the start of a full-fledged altcoin season.
Analyzing CryptoQuant data, I focus on two key but divergent indicators. The first is the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH). This metric has plummeted to a five-year low, indicating a prolonged and sustained dominance of sellers. Essentially, we are witnessing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot markets. This is not just a correction—it is a structural redistribution of liquidity.
Altcoin Season Index: A Reverse Trend
The second indicator paints a different picture. The 180-day Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 18.48. Historically, when this index exceeds 20, the market enters a phase of active capital flow from Bitcoin into altcoins. The current value is less than two points away from this threshold. This suggests that, despite prolonged selling pressure, the groundwork for an altcoin season has already been laid. The market is at a bifurcation point.
Analyst Opinions Are Divided
There is no consensus among experts. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will not revisit their historical lows. He argues that the market has entered the "depression" phase of the cycle, where retail investors exit while large holders quietly accumulate assets. According to his forecast, Bitcoin's dominance will increase at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing in a highly selective manner.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He asserts that launching a true altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, requires massive monetary expansion. In his view, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028–2029.
My expertise: The contradiction between record selling pressure and the Altcoin Season Index approaching a key level is a classic sign of accumulation. The market is "washing out" weak hands, preparing for the next rally. However, investors should be extremely selective: an altcoin season, if it begins, will not be universal but focused on projects with real value and liquidity.