The selling pressure on altcoins has dropped to a 2020 low: is an altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but highly interesting signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has reached its lowest levels since 2020. This suggests that sellers have nearly exhausted their potential, and the scales are beginning to tip in favor of buyers.
However, if you dig deeper, the picture becomes less clear-cut. The net sales indicator (the difference between buying and selling volumes) has remained in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. This means that, despite the overall decline in pressure, sales still dominate. Essentially, the market is in a phase of "quiet sell-off," where bears are gradually giving up ground, but bulls are not yet ready for an active assault.
Altcoin Season Index: A Historical Signal
A much more optimistic picture is painted by another CryptoQuant indicator — the Altcoin Season Index over a 180-day period. Its current value is 18.48, critically close to the threshold of 20. Historically, crossing this level signals the start of a full-fledged altcoin season. We are seeing capital begin to gradually flow from Bitcoin into alts, but this process is still in its early stages.
Analysts are divided on the timing and scale of the upcoming rally. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025, have already reached their local lows and are in the "depression" phase of the cycle. In his view, large holders (whales) are quietly accumulating assets, and growth will be highly selective — primarily in the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins.
At the same time, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that to replicate the 2020–2021 scenario, a massive issuance of fiat money is needed, which is unlikely to be seen before 2028–2029. Thus, while technical indicators point to the proximity of an altcoin season, its fundamental drivers remain uncertain.
My opinion: The current situation resembles the calm before the storm. Selling pressure at a minimum is a powerful bullish signal that often precedes sharp movements. However, due to macroeconomic uncertainty and the absence of "easy money," this altcoin season will likely not be universal but highly selective. Investors should focus on projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals, rather than on "junk" coins.