Altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows: Is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, CryptoQuant's Altcoin Season Index is steadily approaching historical thresholds that preceded major rallies.
On-chain data analysis reveals an intriguing divergence. The indicator tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has plummeted to a five-year low. This means sellers dominate buyers on spot markets with a force not seen since 2020. Moreover, net selling has persisted for 15 consecutive months—an unprecedented duration even for bearish phases.
However, there is a flip side to the coin. CryptoQuant's Altcoin Season Index, calculated over a 180-day period, shows the opposite picture. It currently stands at 18.48, just 1.5 points below the historical threshold of 20, after which a capital shift from Bitcoin to altcoins traditionally begins. The market is literally frozen on the brink.
Two camps: depression or accumulation?
Opinions among leading analysts are divided. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already passed the "depression" phase of the current cycle. According to him, retail investors are exiting projects, while large players continue to quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow selectively—driven by the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than a complete disappearance of the altcoin market.
In the opposing camp is trader Crypto Kid, who holds a much more bearish view. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, requires massive fiat money issuance. In his estimation, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: The divergence between extremely low selling pressure and the season index approaching a critical threshold is a classic sign of consolidation before a major move. However, 15 months of continuous net selling is an anomaly that may indicate structural changes in market maker behavior. If the 20-point threshold is breached in the coming weeks, it will be a powerful bullish signal. If not, the market could enter a prolonged sideways phase, where only projects with real liquidity and utility will survive.