The altcoin season index signals a trend shift: selling pressure has reached 2020 lows
The cryptocurrency market is on the verge of significant changes. On-chain data analysis shows that selling pressure on altcoins on spot exchanges has plummeted to levels not seen since 2020. Historically, this signals the approach of a phase where capital begins to actively flow from Bitcoin into altcoins, triggering the so-called "altcoin season."
A key CryptoQuant indicator, which tracks the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH), has fallen to a five-year low. Moreover, net selling on spot markets has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This suggests that long-term seller pressure has reached extreme values, which often precedes a trend reversal.
Two Signals from CryptoQuant: Contradiction or Confirmation?
Interestingly, another indicator from the same platform—the Altcoin Season Index (over a 180-day period)—paints a contrasting picture. Its current value is 18.48, close to historical levels that precede the start of an altcoin season. The psychologically important threshold of 20 points has not yet been crossed, but the trajectory indicates that the market is in the final stage of accumulation.
Analysts are divided on the timing and strength of the upcoming rally. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly lost value in 2025 and early 2026, will not revisit their historical lows. According to him, the market has entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders ("whales") continue to quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, and capital rotation will become highly selective.
Trader Crypto Kid, on the other hand, is more skeptical. He believes that for a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020-2021 cycle, a massive issuance of fiat money is necessary, which he expects no earlier than 2028-2029.
Expert opinion: The paradox of the current situation is that extreme selling pressure on altcoins (a sign of exhaustion) coincides with the altcoin season index approaching a critical level. This is a classic sign that "blood in the streets" may be the best entry point. However, unlike past cycles, the altcoin season is likely to be not universal, but deeply selective. Investors should prepare not for a rally of "everyone and everything," but for targeted movement in the most fundamentally strong projects.