Altcoin selling pressure has hit 2020 lows: two CryptoQuant signals point to an approaching altcoin season
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but highly significant signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to a low not seen since 2020. On the other, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is approaching a critical threshold that historically precedes a trend reversal.
Contradictory Signals from CryptoQuant
The first indicator, which tracks the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH), has hit a five-year low. This means sellers are consistently dominating buyers on spot markets. Platform analysts note that this trend is not short-term but structural: net selling has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. The indicator nearly reached zero in early 2025, then reversed downward and continued to decline.
However, the second indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — paints a completely different picture. It currently stands at 18.48, just 1.5 points below the historical threshold of 20, above which, according to CryptoQuant, an active altcoin season begins. In other words, the market is one step away from capital flowing from Bitcoin and Ethereum into a broader range of digital assets.
Analysts' Opinions Diverge: Is a Season Coming?
There is no consensus among experts. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025–2026, will not update their historical lows. In his assessment, the market has entered a "depression" phase of the current cycle: retail investors are leaving projects, while large holders ("whales") are quietly accumulating assets. He expects Bitcoin's dominance to grow at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing in a highly selective manner.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, requires large-scale monetary issuance, akin to what was launched in response to the pandemic. In his view, such a scenario may not materialize until 2028–2029.
My comment as an analyst: The contradiction between extremely low selling pressure and the season index approaching its threshold is a classic sign of accumulation. The market is "shaking out" weak hands, but large players are already preparing for a reversal. However, capital selectivity is a key factor. In the coming months, we should expect growth not in all altcoins, but only in those with real fundamentals and community support. There will be an altcoin season, but it will be a "smart" one.