Mining in Russia: The shadowy past fades — a legal future is on the horizon
With the end of 2024, Russian mining has finally emerged from the shadows. It is no longer a gray area, but a full-fledged business with transparent rules. However, attempts to hide cryptocurrency mining are doomed to fail — the colossal energy consumption of such farms is far too noticeable.
The regulatory framework for the industry was established at the end of 2024. Legal entities were allowed to engage in mining after being included in a special register, while for individuals, an energy consumption limit of up to 6000 kWh was set, along with an obligation to report to the tax authorities. However, as practice shows, many private miners faced complex bureaucracy and simply did not submit the documents.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach. The market did not feel harsh sanctions: penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. But now the situation is changing. News of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to frighten the industry. Nevertheless, the law leaves the possibility of avoiding severe punishment if unpaid taxes are fully compensated. It is reasonable to expect a lenient approach towards small entrepreneurs — by analogy with utility debts, where warnings are issued first, and account blocking remains a last resort.
Paradoxically, the new rules benefit the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset; now it is only on net profit. Additionally, equipment depreciation is now allowed: individuals can write off its cost in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can spread this process over 24 months or more. Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, the income tax will effectively be zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks far more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
Mining cannot be hidden: energy consumption gives everyone away
It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. The mining process creates a colossal constant load on the power grid. Illegal operators immediately see their electricity bills skyrocket, and unauthorized connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect abnormal readings. Detecting gray sites is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized, as they know how to operate within the legal framework.
Bitcoin: cycle target — $180–250 thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty adjustments and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to start in the fall, but on October 11, 2025, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year. At the same time, I keep the final price targets the same. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average level is set at $250 thousand. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward halving.
Probability of an extreme scenario
I have described in detail a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the price drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be shut down in one day. Due to the built-in rule for difficulty adjustment, which occurs once every 2016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche of miners leaving the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the price as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.
Expert opinion: Russian mining is entering an era of maturity. Legalization and a favorable tax regime create a powerful incentive to come out of the shadows. For investors, this is a signal: the time for gray schemes is over, the future belongs to a transparent and regulated business that, with the right approach, can be extremely profitable.