The selling pressure on altcoins has plummeted to 2020 lows: is an altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely interesting signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached a five-year low—a level not seen since 2020. On the other hand, CryptoQuant's analytical tools paint a picture that could indicate the imminent start of a full-fledged altcoin season.
The key indicator—the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum)—has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. This means sellers have significantly outnumbered buyers on spot markets for an extended period. In early 2025, the metric nearly hit the zero mark, but then reversed downward again, continuing its bearish trend in the following months.
Two Indicators, Two Views of the Market
However, another CryptoQuant metric, the Altcoin Season Index (180-day), shows the opposite dynamic. It currently stands at 18.48, which historically precedes the start of an altcoin season. Platform analysts note that a "revival" occurs when the level exceeds 20. The market has not yet reached the threshold, but the trajectory inspires optimism.
Notably, this divergence in signals is not an anomaly. On the contrary, it reflects a complex phase of the cycle where capital flows are highly selective. Selling pressure persists, but investors are beginning to eye altcoins, preparing for the next stage.
Analysts' Opinions Are Divided
João Wedson, founder of Alphractal, believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing extremely selectively.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season requires large-scale money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020-2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028-2029.
My analysis: The divergence between selling pressure and the altcoin season index is a classic sign of accumulation. When weak hands sell and smart money quietly picks up assets, the market prepares for a reversal. However, the current macroeconomic environment does not favor massive liquidity, so the altcoin season will likely be not universal but targeted—toward projects with real value and strong fundamentals.