Altcoins on the verge of a rally: selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows
The altcoin market is sending strong reversal signals. According to on-chain analytics, selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to its lowest level since 2020. This is a historical precedent: in the past, similar values preceded the start of a major altcoin season.
Two indicators — two different messages
The indicator of the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes on spot has nearly returned to zero in early 2025, then moved back into negative territory and continued to decline. In fact, we are observing 15 months of continuous net selling. However, extreme levels of this indicator have historically coincided with moments when capital began to flow from Bitcoin into altcoins.
At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant, calculated over a 180-day period, is approaching the critical mark of 20. It currently stands at 18.48. Breaking through this threshold will trigger a full-fledged altseason. The market is frozen in anticipation — the liquidity shift is only just preparing.
Analyst opinions are divided
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle. At this stage, retail investors exit projects, while large holders continue to accumulate assets. According to his assessment, the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will occur mainly at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, but this does not mean the market will disappear — capital will flow extremely selectively.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid adheres to a more bearish scenario. He believes that a true altcoin season requires large-scale money printing, similar to what launched the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028–2029.
My professional view: The extreme decline in selling pressure is a classic sign of capitulation and accumulation. However, the current cycle differs from previous ones: institutional capital in the form of ETFs and large funds is changing the market structure. I expect the altcoin season to be not universal, but narrowly targeted — only projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals will be able to attract capital. Investors should prepare for a selective but powerful rally.