The selling pressure on altcoins has plummeted to 2020 lows: is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. On the other hand, CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching historical levels that have traditionally preceded the start of a massive altcoin rally. This is a classic accumulation pattern before a major move.
Two CryptoQuant Indicators: A Diverging Picture
The first indicator tracks the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH). Its current drop to a five-year low suggests that sellers on spot markets have been consistently and persistently dominating buyers. At the beginning of 2025, the metric nearly reached zero, but then reversed downward and continued to decline in the following months. CryptoQuant analysts note that we are observing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges.
However, in parallel, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index remains at 18.48. Historically, when this index rises above 20, the market enters an active altcoin season phase. In other words, it is literally one step away from the threshold. Capital is only preparing for a flow, but the system is already on edge.
Analyst Opinions Divided: Who Is Right?
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will occur at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: The drop in selling pressure to 2020 levels is a powerful bullish signal that cannot be ignored. However, the current macroeconomic environment is fundamentally different from what it was four years ago. The altcoin season will likely not be total, but extremely selective—only projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals will be able to attract capital. Investors should prepare for differentiation, not for a mindless rise of all coins.