Mining in Russia: an era of transparency and favorable taxes
Russian cryptocurrency mining is finally emerging from the shadows. Since the end of 2024, the industry has been operating in a legal framework with clear rules, and attempts to hide mining are becoming pointless. The main reason is the colossal and unavoidable energy consumption, which makes illegal activities obvious to regulatory authorities.
Regulatory Environment: From Relaxation to Tightening
The basic law, which came into force at the end of 2024, allowed organizations to mine coins after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh was set, along with the obligation to file tax reports. However, as my analysis shows, many private miners faced complex bureaucracy and simply did not submit the documents.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach, mainly penalizing illegal connections to power grids. Now the situation is changing: reports of large fines and criminal cases are having a sobering effect on the industry. Nevertheless, the law allows avoiding severe punishment if taxes are fully compensated. A reasonable approach is to act by analogy with utility debts: first a warning, with account blocking only as a last resort.
The Paradox of the Law: Tax Benefits for Legal Players
The new rules are paradoxically beneficial to market participants themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of the asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals can write off the cost of equipment within one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more.
Expenses officially include electricity costs, hosting construction, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, the profit tax will be effectively zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. This process creates a colossal constant load on the network. Illegal miners instantly see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly record abnormal indicators. Large players have long legalized, understanding the futility of gray schemes.
Bitcoin: Fundamental Cycle Targets
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, and technical analysis are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation: over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price has never dropped below the production cost for most devices—this forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025, but on October 11, the market broke classical historical patterns. As a result, the industry found a bottom in early 2026, rather than at the end of last year. However, the final price targets remained the same: a minimum level of $180,000, and an average level of $250,000. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.
Extreme Scenario and Conclusions
The detailed "death spiral" scenario assumes that if by the time of the halving the rate drops to $130,000 and the production cost rises to $180,000, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of the world's capacity could shut down in one day, triggering an avalanche of miner exits and panic. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States, increasing the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
Nevertheless, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the rate as it approaches the critical threshold. The final levels of the current cycle will be adjusted based on network difficulty indicators.
My expert opinion: Russian mining is entering a mature phase where transparency becomes not a punishment, but a competitive advantage. Legalization opens access to tax benefits and depreciation, which in the long term is more profitable than any gray schemes. The Bitcoin market, despite volatility, rests on a solid foundation, and the current cycle will likely bring new historical highs.