The altcoin index is at 2020 lows: selling pressure is exhausting, a signal for a reversal?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. On the other hand, the altcoin season indicator has closely approached threshold levels that historically preceded major rallies.
Analysis of on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a rare divergence. The indicator of the total difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has fallen to a five-year low. This means that sellers on spot markets have practically exhausted their potential: net selling pressure has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. The indicator almost reached the zero mark in early 2025, after which it turned downward again, indicating a persistent but fading bearish momentum.
However, in parallel, the Altcoin Season Index (180-day) shows the opposite dynamic. It is currently at 18.48 — just one and a half points from the threshold of 20, which is traditionally considered the start of an active altcoin season. The market is frozen in anticipation: capital is not yet flowing into alts en masse, but the prerequisites for such a scenario have already been formed.
Analysts are divided in their assessments of the prospects
Expert opinions are split. Founder of Alphractal, João Wedson, believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will avoid new historical lows. According to his assessment, a significant part of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: retail investors are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, and capital will flow very selectively — not all projects will receive support.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season requires a massive issuance of fiat money, similar to what launched the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario is possible no earlier than 2028–2029.
My view: The divergence between extremely low selling pressure and the index approaching the threshold value is a classic sign of accumulation. However, the current macroeconomic environment and the lack of fresh liquidity make the scenario of a "universal altseason" unlikely. Rather, we will see highly selective growth: strong projects with real-world applications and community support could show multiple-fold growth, while the bulk of "junk" tokens will continue to stagnate. Investors should prepare for a market where the winner takes all, rather than a mindless rally of all altcoins.