The selling pressure on altcoins has plummeted to 2020 lows: is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached a five-year low, last seen in 2020. On the other hand, according to an alternative indicator, the net selling of altcoins excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This creates a unique configuration that historically preceded the start of a full-fledged altcoin season.
Two CryptoQuant Indicators: Looking in Different Directions
The first indicator tracks the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH). Its drop to the 2020 level signals that sellers on the spot market have dominated buyers for a long time. The chart nearly returned to zero in early 2025, after which it reversed downward again and continued to decline. As one CryptoQuant analyst noted, this is not a short-term dip, but 15 months of continuous net selling.
The second indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — paints a different picture. It currently stands at 18.48, approaching the threshold value of 20. Historically, exceeding this level signals the beginning of capital flow into altcoins. In other words, the market has not yet entered an active growth phase, but it is in close proximity to it.
Analyst Opinions Diverge: Who is Right?
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to his assessment, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small investors are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He expects that the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require large-scale money printing, similar to what launched the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario is possible no earlier than 2028–2029.
My expert assessment: The current configuration is rare for the market. Prolonged selling pressure and the simultaneous approach of the altcoin season index to a critical level create the prerequisites for a powerful, but selective rally. I expect the first signs of the season to appear in the coming months, but it will be focused on projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals, rather than on all altcoins indiscriminately.