The selling pressure on altcoins has plummeted to 2020 lows: is the altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending signals that could foreshadow a trend change. Two key indicators from the CryptoQuant platform paint opposing pictures, but it is precisely their divergence that captures my attention as an analyst.
The first indicator — the difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes on spot exchanges (excluding BTC and ETH) — has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. This means selling pressure has reached an extremely low level, and buyers are beginning to gradually outweigh sellers. Essentially, we are seeing 15 months of continuous net selling, which appears to be coming to an end.
The second indicator — the Altcoin Season Index with a 180-day distance — is approaching the critical threshold of 20. It currently stands at 18.48. Historically, when this index surpasses the 20-point mark, the market enters a phase of active capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins. We are almost there.
Analysts are divided in their forecasts
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. In his view, a significant portion of the market has already entered a "depressive" phase of the cycle: small players are exiting, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He expects that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require large-scale monetary issuance, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My expert assessment: I lean toward the view that we are on the verge of a significant, but selective, altcoin rally. Spot selling pressure is indeed exhausted, and the altcoin season index is in a zone that historically precedes rallies. However, as Wedson rightly noted, this will not be a "universal celebration" — capital will flow into projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals. Investors should prepare for a selective season, not a blind rise across the entire market.