Crypto news

Mining in Russia has finally come out of the shadows. It is now a transparent business with clear rules of the game. Attempts to conceal cryptocurrency mining are doomed to fail due to the colossal energy consumption.

BeInCrypto Editor-in-Chief in the CIS Vladimir Arkhireisky and crypto blogger Pavel Solodkov discussed key changes in the industry at the Crypto Summit 2026. The basic law regulating mining appeared at the end of 2024. Organizations are now allowed to officially mine coins after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of up to 6000 kWh has been set, and an obligation to report to the tax service has been introduced. However, according to experts, ordinary citizens often do not understand the reporting procedure due to complex bureaucracy. This is why many miners have never submitted the documents.

Regulation: The screws are tightening, but the tax regime is favorable

Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach. Market participants did not feel any real harsh sanctions. Punishments were mainly for illegal connections to electrical grids. The situation is now changing, and news of large fines and criminal cases is frightening the industry.

However, the law allows avoiding severe punishment if unpaid taxes are fully compensated. Experts expect a lenient approach towards small entrepreneurs — by analogy with utility debts, where warnings are issued first. Account blocking should remain a last resort.

The new rules are paradoxically beneficial for the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now, the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated:

• Individuals can write off the cost of equipment in one reporting period;
• Legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can spread this process over 24 months or more.

Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to expert calculations, there will effectively be no income tax for the first two years. Even the standard rate of $25 for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. This process creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators immediately see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly record abnormal indicators. For this reason, detecting gray-area operations is solely a matter of time. Large players have long since legalized, as they know how to operate within the legal framework.

Bitcoin: Cycle target — $180–250 thousand

In assessing the value of the main digital asset, experts rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, political statements, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive.

Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, which includes over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes a regular difficulty adjustment and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts for the timing of the growth start had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to start in the fall. However, on October 11, 2025, the market broke classical historical patterns. As a result, the industry found the bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year.

At the same time, the final price targets remained the same. They are entirely based on a mathematical model. The minimum level is $180 thousand, and the average figure is set at $250 thousand. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward halving.

Probability of an extreme scenario

Experts have described in detail a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could shut down in a single day.

Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, which occurs every 2016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

However, experts are confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. The final levels of the current cycle are planned to be adjusted based on network difficulty indicators.

Analyst comment: The legalization of mining in Russia is not just a tribute to fashion, but a forced measure dictated by the energy transparency of the industry. Tax breaks, especially equipment depreciation, make "white" mining not only safe but also economically more attractive compared to gray schemes. The market is gradually coming to understand: hiding mining is not only risky but simply unprofitable.