The Altcoin Season Index is on the verge of a historic reversal: selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 levels.
The altcoin market is sending powerful signals that I, as an analyst, cannot ignore. Selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins has dropped to lows not seen since 2020. However, looking at dynamics beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), we see 15 consecutive months of net selling. This is a classic accumulation pattern before a major move.
Two CryptoQuant indicators: a mirror image
Analytics from the CryptoQuant platform paint a contradictory yet highly revealing picture. The Altcoin Season Index over a 180-day period is rapidly approaching levels that historically preceded the start of an active altseason phase. The current value is 18.48, and the threshold of 20 points is already close. This indicates that the market is preparing for a capital shift but has not yet triggered it.
At the same time, the indicator measuring the difference between spot buying and selling volumes for altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has collapsed to a five-year low. Spot sales are persistently dominant, creating a "compressed spring" effect. Once selling pressure subsides, we could witness a sharp reversal.
Analyst opinions are divided: who is right?
There is no consensus among experts regarding timing. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will not reach new all-time lows. In his assessment, the market has entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where retail investors exit projects while large players quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing extremely selectively.
However, there is also a more cautious perspective. Trader Crypto Kid believes that for a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020-2021 cycle, massive money printing is necessary. In his view, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028-2029. For now, we are only seeing the groundwork being laid.
My expert conclusion: We are currently at a unique point. Historical precedents suggest that a minimum in selling pressure and the index approaching threshold levels signal the start of aggressive altcoin growth. However, the current cycle is characterized by high selectivity: not everything will rise indiscriminately. Investors should focus on projects with real liquidity and fundamentals, rather than speculative junk tokens. The altcoin season is near, but it will be for the chosen few.