The selling pressure on altcoins has collapsed to 2020 lows: the altcoin season is on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending powerful yet contradictory signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached its lowest levels since 2020. On the other hand, an indicator tracking the net sales flow excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) shows that bearish sentiment has persisted for 15 consecutive months. This creates a unique divergence that has historically preceded a trend reversal.
Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint opposing pictures. The first — the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes — has fallen to a five-year low. This means sellers dominate on the spot market, and their activity has only recently begun to weaken. The second — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — is approaching the critical threshold of 20 points. It currently stands at 18.48. Historically, exceeding this threshold has marked the beginning of a full-fledged altcoin season, when capital starts flowing from Bitcoin into riskier assets.
Analysts are divided: depression or preparation for a rally?
There is no consensus among experts. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already passed the "depression" phase of the current cycle. According to him, a significant portion of the market has entered a stage where retail investors are exiting projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that the increase in Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing in a highly selective manner.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that for a true altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, massive money printing is necessary. In his view, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: The divergence between the record decline in selling pressure and the multi-month net outflow is a classic sign of accumulation. The market is in a phase of retail investor "capitulation," while "smart money" prepares for a reversal. The Altcoin Season Index near 20 is not a guarantee, but a powerful technical signal. If Bitcoin continues to consolidate or corrects, we could see a sharp shift in liquidity into altcoins within the coming weeks. The key risk is the absence of new monetary stimulus, which could delay a full-fledged season but not cancel it.