CryptoQuant indicators signal the approaching altcoin season: selling pressure at lows since 2020
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet highly telling signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. On the other, according to the alternative CryptoQuant index, there have been 15 consecutive months of net asset sales outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Such divergence often precedes major reversals.
A key indicator — the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) — has hit a five-year low. This suggests that sellers have dominated the spot market for a long time, and their momentum is beginning to wane. At the start of 2025, the metric nearly reached zero, but then reversed downward again, continuing the downtrend in subsequent months.
However, in parallel, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant (180-day) is approaching historical levels that traditionally precede the start of an altcoin season. The index currently stands at 18.48. Platform analysts note that the activation threshold for the season is considered to be above 20. The market has not yet reached this level but is in close proximity, preparing for a capital rotation.
Two camps of analysts: from depression to selective growth
Expert opinions are divided. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to his assessment, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects and large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will increase at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing extremely selectively.
In contrast, trader Crypto Kid takes a more bearish stance. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season requires massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: Historically, periods of extreme selling pressure and the index's proximity to threshold values have coincided with reversal points. The current divergence between the two CryptoQuant indicators is a classic sign of accumulation. However, given the macroeconomic backdrop and the lack of large-scale liquidity, the altcoin season in 2026 is likely to be not universal but highly selective: only projects with real utility and strong fundamentals will benefit. A broad "altcoin parade" in the style of 2021 is unlikely.