Mining in Russia: The shadow era is over — tax transparency has become inevitable
Mining in Russia has finally come out of the shadows and become a fully legal business. Attempts to hide cryptocurrency mining are now doomed to fail: the colossal energy consumption makes illegal farms as visible to regulatory authorities as a spotlight in the night.
The market has entered a new phase of regulation. The basic law that legalized the industry appeared back in late 2024. Legal entities received the right to officially mine coins after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh was set, along with an obligation to report to the tax service. However, as practice shows, many private miners have still not submitted documents—the complex bureaucratic procedure deters market participants.
The entire year of 2025 passed under the sign of a wait-and-see position by regulatory authorities. The market did not feel any real harsh sanctions—penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. Now the situation is changing dramatically, and news of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to frighten the industry. The law, however, leaves a loophole: full compensation of unpaid taxes can avoid severe punishment. A lenient approach is expected for small entrepreneurs, similar to utility debts—first a warning, and only then account blocking.
Tax regime: benefits for legal players
Paradoxically, the new rules benefit market participants themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals write off the cost of equipment in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more. Expenses for electricity, hosting construction, repair work, and forced downtime are officially included in costs. According to my calculations, the income tax will effectively be zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. This process creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators instantly see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly detect abnormal indicators. Detecting gray sites is purely a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized because they know how to operate within the legal framework.
Bitcoin: cycle target—$180–250 thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, politicians' statements, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes a regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observations, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall, but on October 11, 2025, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year. The final price targets remained the same. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average figure is set at $250 thousand. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.
Probability of an extreme scenario
I have described in detail a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the price drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could shut down in a single day. Due to the built-in rule of difficulty adjustment, which occurs every 2,016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche of miners leaving the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
Nevertheless, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the price as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.
Analyst's opinion: Russian mining is entering an era where transparency is not just a legal requirement but an economic necessity. Legalization provides a powerful stimulus for development but requires market participants to adapt to new realities. Those who fail to restructure risk being left behind.