Two Faces of the Market: Altcoin Selling Pressure Drops to 2020 Lows, Season Index Poised for Breakout
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. On the other hand, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching historical levels that traditionally precede the start of active altcoin growth. These data indicate that the market is at a bifurcation point, and the "altseason" scenario is becoming increasingly likely.
Selling Pressure: A Five-Year Low
A key CryptoQuant indicator, which tracks the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH), has fallen to levels last seen in 2020. This means sellers have dominated spot exchanges for a long time — in fact, we are observing 15 months of continuous net selling. As analysts on the platform note, this is not a temporary dip but a prolonged trend, which, however, could be a precursor to a reversal.
Altcoin Season Index: Ready for a Breakout
At the same time, another CryptoQuant indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — shows the opposite picture. It currently stands at 18.48, just two points away from the threshold value of 20. Historically, crossing this mark signals the start of an active capital flow from Bitcoin and Ethereum into altcoins. The market has not yet reached this threshold, but the trajectory indicates that preparations for the altcoin season are already in full swing.
Analyst Opinions: Consensus vs. Skepticism
Among experts, there is no consensus on the timing, but there is a general understanding of the direction. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle. At this stage, small investors are exiting projects, while large holders are accumulating assets. In his view, the rise in Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, but this does not mean the death of the entire market — capital will flow very selectively.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that for a full-fledged altseason, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, a massive money supply expansion is necessary, which cannot be expected before 2028–2029.
My analysis: CryptoQuant's signals are among the strongest in recent years. The combination of extremely low selling pressure and the season index approaching its threshold creates a classic "compressed spring." However, I agree with the view on selectivity: the next altseason will likely not be a total rally, but rather a rally for projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals. Investors should prepare for high volatility and focus on quality, not quantity.