Mining in Russia: Out of the Shadows. Why It's Impossible to Hide Cryptocurrency Mining
Mining in Russia has finally ceased to be a "gray" area. With the adoption of the basic law at the end of 2024, the industry received clear rules of the game. Now it is a legal, transparent business, and attempts to conceal cryptocurrency mining are doomed to fail. Why? The answer lies in the colossal energy consumption: it is technically impossible to hide such a load on the grid.
The legislation allowed legal entities and individual entrepreneurs to officially mine cryptocurrency after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6000 kWh was set, along with an obligation to report to the tax authorities. However, as practice shows, many private miners have still not submitted documents — the bureaucratic procedure turned out to be too complicated for them.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see position. The market did not feel any real harsh sanctions — penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. Now the situation is changing. News of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to frighten the industry. Nevertheless, the law allows avoiding severe punishment with full compensation for unpaid taxes. It is reasonable to act by analogy with utility debts: first, warnings are issued, and only then — account blocking.
Tax Preferences and Depreciation: Why Legalization is Beneficial
The new rules are paradoxically beneficial to the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of the digital asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals write off its cost in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more.
Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, the income tax will actually be zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
Bitcoin: Cycle Target — $180–250 Thousand
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, technical analysis, and geopolitics are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation: over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years.
Over 17 years of observations, the market price has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor. Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted: the expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025, but the market broke classical historical patterns on October 11. As a result, the bottom was reached in early 2026.
However, the final price targets remained the same. The minimum level is $180 thousand, the average is $250 thousand. This mark will be the peak of the current cycle, after which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.
Probability of an Extreme Scenario
It is also worth considering a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the rate drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacities could shut down in one day. Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly, triggering an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes.
Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack. However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the rate as it approaches the critical threshold.
My expert opinion: The legalization of mining in Russia is not a tightening, but an opportunity for the market to reach a new level. Transparency and tax benefits make the industry attractive for investment, and the inevitability of detecting gray schemes encourages all players to work in a civilized manner. As for Bitcoin, the fundamental indicators remain bullish, and I expect the target levels of $180–250 thousand to be reached by the peak of the current cycle.