The key indicator for altcoins has crashed to 2020 levels — is the season on the horizon?
Selling pressure on altcoins on spot exchanges has dropped to a minimum not seen since 2020. At the same time, according to another key indicator, net sales of assets outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. The market is frozen in anticipation of a reversal.
Two indicators from CryptoQuant paint an opposite picture. On one hand, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching values that historically preceded the start of a powerful altcoin rally. On the other hand, the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has collapsed to a five-year low. This indicates that sellers on the spot market are consistently dominating buyers.
The indicator nearly returned to zero at the beginning of 2025, but then reversed downward again and continued its decline in subsequent months. Platform analysts note: "This is not about a drawdown. We are seeing 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges." This is an extreme signal that typically precedes either capitulation or a sharp reversal.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 18.48. Historically, altcoin season "awakens" when the value rises above 20. That is, the market has not yet reached the threshold: it is only preparing for a capital shift. However, the very proximity to this level, against the backdrop of minimal selling pressure, creates an extremely tense and potentially explosive situation.
Analysts' opinions are divided
The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. "The growth of Bitcoin's dominance will likely come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins. This does not mean all altcoins will disappear. Capital will flow very selectively," the expert notes.
At the same time, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario can be expected closer to 2028 or 2029.
My view: The situation resembles a coiled spring. Selling pressure is at lows, and the altcoin season index is at a critical threshold. If the macroeconomic environment does not spring any surprises, we could witness one of the sharpest reversals in favor of altcoins in recent years. But until the level of 20 is broken, it is premature to talk about the start of the season — for now, it is only potential.