The altcoin index is on the verge of a season: selling pressure has dropped to lows not seen since 2020.
The altcoin market is sending signals that cannot be ignored. Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint contrasting yet equally significant pictures. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges—the difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH)—has plummeted to levels not seen since 2020. This suggests that sellers are exhausted, while buyers are gradually taking the initiative. The indicator nearly touched zero in early 2025, but then reversed downward again, continuing its decline in subsequent months. As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech notes, we are witnessing not just a drawdown, but 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges. This is an extreme level that historically precedes a trend reversal.
Altcoin Season Index: Readiness for Awakening
The second indicator—the 180-day Altcoin Season Index—shows the opposite dynamic. Its current value of 18.48 is approaching the critical threshold of 20 points. According to CryptoQuant, it is precisely above this mark that a full-fledged altcoin season begins. In other words, the market is on the verge of capital flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins. However, a breakout has not yet occurred: the index is merely preparing for a surge, creating intrigue for the short-term outlook.
Opinions Diverge: From Depression to Selective Growth
Analysts are divided on what awaits altcoins in the coming months. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, have already avoided new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small investors are exiting projects, while large holders (whales) are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively—not all coins will benefit.
In turn, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028 or 2029.
My view as an analyst: I lean toward the idea that we are on the verge of a selective but powerful rally. Historical data on selling pressure and the altcoin season index is too compelling to ignore. However, 2025 has shown that the market has become more mature—capital will not flow into everything indiscriminately, but into projects with real liquidity and fundamentals. Investors should prepare for volatility but not miss the moment: current levels could become an entry point before a significant move.