The selling pressure on altcoins has collapsed to 2020 lows: the altcoin season is on the horizon.
The altcoin market is sending strong signals of a phase shift. CryptoQuant indicators show a rare picture: on one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached a five-year low, while on the other, the Altcoin Season Index has closely approached threshold levels that historically precede the start of a rally.
Two Faces of One Market
The first key signal is the metric for the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum). Its decline to 2020 levels indicates that sellers on spot markets have nearly exhausted their potential. In early 2025, the indicator almost returned to zero, then moved back into negative territory and continued to decline. In effect, we are observing 15 months of continuous net altcoin selling on spot.
The second indicator, in contrast, paints an optimistic picture. The 180-day Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 18.48. According to historical data, surpassing the 20 level traditionally triggers a phase of active capital flow from Bitcoin into altcoins. The market is on the verge of this event.
Analyst Opinions Are Divided
Despite the positive signals, there is no consensus on the imminent start of a full-fledged season. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will not see new all-time lows. In his assessment, a significant portion of the market has entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders ("whales") continue to accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance growth will be highly selective—driven by the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than by a mass wipeout of all altcoins.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that launching a true altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, would require massive monetary issuance, which is unlikely to be expected before 2028–2029.
My analysis: The decline in spot selling pressure to five-year lows is undoubtedly a bullish signal, indicating seller exhaustion. However, I tend to agree with the view of selective future growth. An altcoin season, if it begins, will not be universal but focused on projects with strong fundamentals and real-world applications. Investors should prepare not for "easy money," but for careful asset selection.