The selling pressure on altcoins has collapsed to 2020 lows: is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending powerful but contradictory signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. On the other, net asset sales outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This data divergence requires careful analysis.
Two Faces of One Market: CryptoQuant Indicators Diverge
A key indicator from CryptoQuant, tracking the difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH), has hit a five-year low. This suggests that sellers dominate on the spot market, while buying activity is at an extremely low level. At the start of 2025, the indicator nearly zeroed out, but then reversed downward again, continuing the downtrend.
However, a parallel indicator—the Altcoin Season Index with a 180-day period—paints a different picture. Its current value is 18.48, closely approaching the historical threshold of 20 points. Exceeding this mark traditionally signals the start of a full-fledged altcoin season. Platform analysts note that the market is in an accumulation phase, preceding a capital shift.
As one expert aptly put it, "This isn't about a drawdown. We're seeing 15 months of continuous net sales on spot exchanges." This is not just a correction, but a structural redistribution of liquidity.
Views Divided: Bulls vs. Realists
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. In his assessment, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle. At this stage, small players exit projects, while large holders quietly accumulate assets.
Wedson predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins. "This doesn't mean all altcoins will disappear. Rather, capital will flow very selectively," he emphasizes.
In contrast, trader Crypto Kid is much more skeptical. He believes that a massive money issuance, similar to what fueled the 2020–2021 cycle, is needed to trigger a real altcoin season. In his view, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
Cryptalist Commentary: The divergence between extremely low selling pressure and the Altcoin Season Index approaching the threshold is a classic sign of accumulation. However, the 15-month period of net sales indicates that the market is not yet ready for a broad rally. The altcoin season will likely be not universal, but highly selective: capital will flow into projects with real liquidity and fundamentals, not into "junk" tokens. Investors should prepare for high volatility and focus on quality assets.