Crypto news

Mining in Russia has finally ceased to be an underground craft. Today it is a completely transparent industry with formalized rules. And anyone who tries to mine in the shadows is doomed to fail: colossal energy consumption makes illegal farms visible to regulators within weeks.

Regulation: The screws are tightening, but the tax burden is decreasing

The basic law regulating the industry came into force at the end of 2024. Legal entities are allowed to mine coins only after being included in a special register. For private miners, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh per month has been set, along with an obligation to report to the tax authorities. Many retail market participants have still not submitted documents — the bureaucratic procedure has proven too complex for them.

Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach. There were no harsh sanctions — penalties were mainly imposed for illegal connections to power grids. However, the situation is now changing dramatically: news of large fines and criminal cases is already frightening the industry.

The paradox is that the new rules benefit miners themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of the digital asset. Now the fiscal burden applies only to net profit. Equipment has been allowed to be depreciated:

• individuals can write off the cost of equipment within one reporting period;
• legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can spread this process over 24 months or more.

Expenses officially include costs for electricity, hosting construction, repair work, and forced downtime. In my estimation, for the first two years, the profit tax for most operators will be effectively zero. Even the standard 25% rate for companies looks far more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

Why mining cannot be hidden

It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. The mining process creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal operators see their electricity bills skyrocket instantly, and unauthorized connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies detect abnormal readings within days. Uncovering gray sites is only a matter of time. Major players have long since legalized: they know how to operate within the legal framework and understand that it is cheaper than taking risks.

Bitcoin: Cycle target — $180–250 thousand

In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely solely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, political statements, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive.

Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, including over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes a regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observation, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts regarding the timing of the growth start had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025, but on October 11, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026, rather than at the end of last year.

At the same time, the final price targets remain unchanged. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, and the average level is set at $250 thousand. This mark will be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.

Probability of an extreme scenario

I have thoroughly worked out a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the price drops to $130 thousand and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could shut down in a single day.

Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, which occurs every 2,016 blocks, the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche of miners leaving the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the price as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.

My comment

Russian mining is entering an era of mature business. Legalization and a clear tax base are not a burden, but a competitive advantage. Those who do not realize this today risk tomorrow being left not only without equipment but also in the defendant's seat. The industry is becoming transparent — and that is for the better.