Altcoins on the verge of a breakout: selling pressure has plummeted to 2020 lows
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely interesting signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. On the other hand, net altcoin sales excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have continued for 15 consecutive months. However, historically, such extreme levels have preceded the start of a powerful altcoin season.
Two key indicators from the CryptoQuant platform paint a different picture, but their analysis allows for important conclusions. The first indicator — the difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes on spot (excluding BTC and ETH) — has hit a five-year low. This suggests that sellers have long dominated spot markets, while buying activity remains at extremely low levels.
The second indicator — the Altcoin Season Index over 180 days — is currently at 18.48. According to CryptoQuant, historically, the altcoin season "awakens" when this index surpasses the 20 level. That is, the market has not yet reached the threshold but is already very close to it. This means capital is only just preparing to flow.
Analysts' opinions are divided
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small investors are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
At the same time, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028–2029.
My analysis
From a professional analyst's perspective, the current situation is a classic accumulation phase before a major move. The drop in selling pressure to 2020 lows and the Altcoin Season Index approaching the 20 level are powerful bullish signals. However, the market has become much more mature and selective. I expect the altcoin season to begin in the coming months, but it will focus on projects with real liquidity and fundamental value, rather than a mindless rise of all coins indiscriminately.