Mining in Russia: A Transparent Business, Not a Gray Zone. New Taxation Realities
Mining in Russia has finally ceased to be an underground activity. In 2024, the industry received a clear legislative framework, and now attempts to conceal cryptocurrency mining are not just a risk, but an economic impracticality. The colossal energy consumption makes illegal farms visible to regulatory authorities literally from the first electricity bill.
Regulation: Loyalty and Benefits for Business
The basic law, which came into force at the end of 2024, legalized industrial mining for organizations included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh has been set, along with the obligation of tax reporting. However, as the first months of the law's operation show, many private miners faced bureaucratic complexity in the procedure and simply did not submit documents.
Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see position, not applying harsh sanctions. Penalties mainly concerned illegal connections to networks. Now the situation is changing: news of large fines and criminal cases is beginning to put pressure on the industry. It is important to note that the law provides the possibility of avoiding severe punishment with full compensation of unpaid taxes. I predict a lenient approach towards small entrepreneurs, similar to utility debts — first a warning, then account blocking as a last resort.
Paradoxically, the new rules are beneficial to the players themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated: individuals can write off its cost in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more. Officially included in expenses are costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repairs, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, for the first two years, the income tax for many miners will be effectively zero. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks much more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.
Bitcoin: The Cycle Confirms the Math
In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, technical analysis, and geopolitics are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, which includes over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself includes a regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years. Over 17 years of observation, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices — this forms a reliable economic floor.
Forecasts for the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to start in the fall of 2025, but on October 11, the market broke classical historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026, rather than at the end of last year. At the same time, the final price targets remained the same: a minimum level of $180,000, an average of $250,000. This mark will be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward halving.
Extreme Scenario: "Death Spiral"
One cannot rule out the probability of an extreme "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the exchange rate drops to $130,000, and the production cost rises to $180,000, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be switched off in one day. Due to the embedded rule of difficulty adjustment (every 2016 blocks), the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche-like exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States — such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.
However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the exchange rate as it approaches the critical threshold. I plan to adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.
Expert Opinion: The Russian mining market is entering a phase of maturity. Legalization and transparent taxation are not a restriction, but a powerful incentive for attracting investment and developing infrastructure. Those who continue to work in the shadows risk not only their profits but also their freedom, while legal players will gain access to civilized financial instruments and state protection.