Altcoin season is on the horizon: Indicators have hit 2020 lows
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. According to my analysis of CryptoQuant data, we are witnessing a rare situation: two key indicators are painting diametrically opposite pictures, which often precedes major reversals.
The first indicator — the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) — has fallen to its lowest levels since 2020. This means that selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached a five-year extreme. Analyst IT Tech from CryptoQuant emphasizes that we are seeing 15 months of continuous net selling. The indicator nearly returned to zero at the beginning of 2025, then reversed downward again and continued to decline in the following months.
Altcoin Season Index: Reverse Trend
The second indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — shows the opposite dynamic. It is currently at 18.48. Historically, the altcoin season "comes alive" when the value rises above 20. That is, the market has not yet reached the threshold: it is only preparing for a capital shift. This is a classic accumulation pattern before a rally.
Analysts' opinions diverge. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant part of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: at this stage, many exit projects, while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He expects that the growth of Bitcoin's dominance will occur at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
Trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require mass money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario can be expected closer to 2028 or 2029.
My analysis: The convergence of two opposing signals — extreme selling pressure and the season index approaching threshold values — creates a classic reversal zone. Historically, it is precisely such periods of maximum despair that have preceded the most powerful alt seasons. I expect that in the coming months, we will see selective but significant growth in the segment of quality altcoins, especially those that have demonstrated resilience during the current correction.