CryptoQuant indicators signal an imminent start of the altcoin season: selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. According to my analysis of data from the CryptoQuant platform, two key indicators paint a picture that has historically preceded powerful altcoin rallies. Selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has collapsed to a five-year low — levels last seen in 2020.
This means that the volume of spot sales has exceeded the volume of purchases for an extended period. The indicator of the difference between spot purchases and sales of altcoins nearly reached zero at the beginning of 2025, then reversed downward again, continuing to fall in subsequent months. As one CryptoQuant analyst noted, we are observing 15 months of continuous net sales on spot exchanges. This is not a drawdown but a prolonged trend.
Altcoin Season Index Approaches Threshold Levels
However, the second indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — shows the opposite dynamic. It currently stands at 18.48, very close to the historical threshold of 20 points, after which a full-fledged altcoin season typically begins. In other words, the market is on the verge of a capital shift from Bitcoin and Ethereum to a broader range of assets.
This divergence between extreme selling pressure and the season index approaching its threshold is a classic sign of accumulation. Large players are likely using the current weakness to quietly build positions, while retail investors succumb to panic.
Analyst Opinions Divided: Some Expect Imminent Growth, Others Only by 2028
There is no consensus among market participants regarding the timing. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where weak projects exit the market and strong ones accumulate. He argues that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season, similar to the 2020-2021 cycle, would require massive money printing, akin to what triggered the previous bull run. In his estimation, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028-2029.
My expert conclusion: In my view, the current situation is not a direct repeat of 2020, but rather the formation of a more complex and prolonged accumulation phase. The drop in selling pressure to historical lows is a powerful bullish signal, but it does not guarantee an immediate rally. The market will likely consolidate for several more months before we see a sustained capital shift into altcoins. The key level for confirmation is a breakout above 20 on the Altcoin Season Index. Until then, high volatility and the risk of false moves remain.