The selling pressure on altcoins has plummeted to 2020 lows: is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending powerful but contradictory signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has reached a five-year low, which historically precedes a reversal. On the other hand, net selling of altcoins outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has persisted for 15 consecutive months, indicating a deep and prolonged bearish trend.
A key indicator from CryptoQuant—the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins—has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. In early 2025, the metric nearly reached zero, but then turned negative again and continued to decline. This suggests that sellers dominate on the spot market, and buying activity has yet to turn the tide.
Two indices—two views of the future
However, CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index paints a different picture. It currently stands at 18.48, approaching the critical threshold of 20 points. Based on my observations, crossing this level has historically triggered a full-fledged altcoin season. The market is literally frozen on the edge: capital is preparing to flow, but has yet to make a move.
Analysts are divided in their assessments. Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. In his view, the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing in a highly selective manner.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He argues that a full-fledged altcoin season requires large-scale money printing, similar to what fueled the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028–2029.
My view: The situation resembles the calm before the storm. Selling pressure at lows is a classic accumulation signal. However, without a powerful external catalyst (e.g., a loosening of Fed monetary policy), the market could remain stagnant for a long time. Investors should prepare for selective growth: not all altcoins will repeat the success of 2021.