CryptoQuant indicators point to the approaching altcoin season: selling pressure has reached 2020 lows.
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching threshold values that have historically preceded a massive altcoin rally.
Two Signals from CryptoQuant: Sellers Exhausted, but Capital Has Not Yet Shifted
The first indicator tracks the cumulative difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes, excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Its drop to a minimum since 2020 suggests that sellers have dominated the spot markets for a long time, and their activity has reached extremely low levels. Essentially, we are witnessing seller exhaustion — a classic precursor to a trend reversal.
The second indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — is currently at 18.48. CryptoQuant analysts note that the altcoin season "comes to life" when the level exceeds 20 points. In other words, there is very little left until an actual capital shift from BTC and ETH into altcoins occurs. The market is in an accumulation phase, where large players quietly increase their positions while retail traders panic.
Analyst Opinions Diverge: Bearish Scenario vs. Selective Growth
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where weak projects exit the market and strong ones accumulate. He predicts selective capital growth, concentrated in the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than a total rally of all coins.
However, trader Crypto Kid holds a more bearish view. He believes that for a real altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, a massive fiat money issuance would be required, which is not expected until 2028–2029 at the earliest. In his opinion, the current signals are merely a local correction within a long-term bearish trend.
My analysis: The divergence of indicators is not an error but a reflection of structural market changes. Seller exhaustion on the spot market is a powerful bullish signal, but it does not guarantee an immediate rally. Most likely, we will see selective growth in the most liquid and fundamentally strong altcoins, while "junk" coins will continue to fall. Investors should focus on assets with high market capitalization and real-world applications, rather than chasing "moon projects."