The altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows: the altcoin season is on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending strong signals of a trend reversal. Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint a contrasting yet highly revealing picture. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to a low not seen since 2020. On the other hand, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index is steadily approaching threshold levels that historically precede a major rally.
Five-Year Low in Selling Pressure
The indicator tracking the cumulative difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has plummeted to levels last recorded five years ago. This means sellers on spot markets have nearly exhausted their potential. Essentially, we are witnessing 15 months of continuous net selling — an unprecedented duration that, in my view, represents the final phase of retail investor capitulation.
The indicator nearly hit the zero mark in early 2025, then reversed downward and continued its decline. This is a classic pattern of seller exhaustion, typically followed by a reversal.
Altcoin Season Index: On the Verge of Awakening
The second indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — currently sits at 18.48. Historically, altcoin season "awakens" when the value rises above 20. The threshold is less than 2 points away. Given the current dynamics, the market is at a bifurcation point: either we will see a sharp upward spike in the index, or it will continue to consolidate.
Analysts are divided on the timing. The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a large portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He expects selective capital flows into the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than a broad rally.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid holds a more bearish view. He argues that a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, requires massive monetary issuance, which is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: I lean toward the view that we are on the verge of a localized but powerful altcoin rally. Seller exhaustion and the index approaching threshold levels are too strong signals to ignore. However, this will not be a repeat of 2021. The season will be highly selective: projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals will benefit. "Junk" coins are likely to be left behind.