Altcoin selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows: two CryptoQuant indicators paint a contradictory picture
The altcoin market is sending powerful but divergent signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has hit a five-year low — levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, according to an alternative indicator, net selling of assets outside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This is a classic divergence that often precedes major reversals.
First Signal: Extreme Decline in Selling
The CryptoQuant indicator tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has dropped to its lowest level since 2020. This means sellers on spot exchanges have nearly dried up: the supply volume that was pressuring prices has shrunk to historically low levels. In early 2025, the metric almost reached zero, but then reversed downward again and continued falling in subsequent months. As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech notes, "we are not just seeing a dip, but 15 months of continuous net selling on spot exchanges." This suggests the market is in a phase of deep capitulation, where weak hands are exiting while large players are likely accumulating assets.
Second Signal: Altcoin Season Index Nears Threshold
Meanwhile, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant remains at 18.48. Historically, altcoin season "awakens" when this indicator rises above 20. We are now very close to this threshold but have not yet crossed it. This is a classic pattern: before a massive capital shift from BTC to altcoins begins, the market goes through an accumulation phase where selling pressure is minimal and the altcoin season index is just starting to rise. That is exactly what we are seeing now.
Analyst Opinions Diverge
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: at this stage, small investors exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, but this does not mean the disappearance of all altcoins — capital will flow very selectively.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario cannot be expected before 2028 or 2029.
My professional conclusion: The paradox of the current situation is that the extreme decline in selling pressure is a bullish signal, but it does not guarantee immediate growth. The altcoin market is likely in an accumulation phase, which could drag on until a new macroeconomic catalyst emerges. Investors should be prepared for selective growth: not all altcoins will surge, but those that survive this "depression" could show impressive performance.