CryptoQuant indicators signal the approaching altcoin season: selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows
Selling pressure on spot altcoin markets has hit a five-year low, while the Altcoin Season Index approaches historical threshold levels. The market appears to be frozen in anticipation of a capital rotation.
Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint a seemingly contradictory picture at first glance, but upon detailed analysis, they point to the same thing — an impending trend reversal. The metric tracking the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has plummeted to levels not seen since 2020. This means sellers on spot exchanges have been dominating buyers for an extended period.
The indicator nearly touched the zero mark at the beginning of 2025, but then reversed downward again and continued its decline in the following months. As one CryptoQuant analyst notes, we are observing 15 consecutive months of net selling on spot exchanges. This is not a short-term drawdown, but a prolonged period of accumulating pressure.
Altcoin Season Index: On the Verge of a Breakout
However, in parallel, the Altcoin Season Index (over 180 days) shows the opposite trend. Currently, this indicator stands at 18.48. Historically, altcoin season "awakens" when the index value rises above 20. Thus, the threshold is very close. The market has not yet entered a phase of active capital rotation from BTC into alts, but it is in close proximity to it.
This is a classic consolidation signal: accumulation occurs against a backdrop of seller exhaustion. When selling pressure reaches extremes, as it does now, the market becomes extremely sensitive to any positive impulse.
Analyst Opinions Divided: Bullish Scenario vs. Cautious Outlook
The founder of Alphractal believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. The rise in Bitcoin's dominance, in his view, will occur at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than the total disappearance of all alts. Capital will flow extremely selectively.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that for a full-fledged altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, massive money printing is necessary. Such a scenario, in his opinion, can be expected no earlier than 2028–2029.
My analysis: Historically, periods of extreme selling pressure on altcoins have preceded powerful rallies. The current situation with the Altcoin Season Index, teetering on the brink of a breakout, is one of the strongest bullish signals for altcoins in recent years. However, given macroeconomic uncertainty, I would not expect a universal "alt season." More likely, we will see extremely selective growth — into assets with strong fundamentals and real-world applications, rather than memecoins and empty projects. The market is cleansing itself, and this opens up opportunities for those who know how to wait.