The selling pressure on altcoins has reached its lowest point since 2020: altcoin season is on the horizon.
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. On the other hand, net sales of coins outside the top twenty (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. In my view, this data divergence indicates that the market is in the final accumulation phase before a potential powerful rally.
Two CryptoQuant Indicators: Opposite Trends
The indicator measuring the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has plummeted to a five-year low. This means sellers are persistently dominating, while buyers are not yet rushing in. However, such extreme levels have historically preceded a reversal.
At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index (180-day) from CryptoQuant is approaching a critical threshold of 20 points. It currently stands at 18.48. When the index crosses this threshold, a classic altcoin season begins—capital starts flowing from Bitcoin into riskier assets. The difference between the current value and the threshold is minimal, indicating a high probability that this mechanism will soon be triggered.
Analysts Diverge in Their Forecasts
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025–2026, will not update their historical lows. In his view, the market has already entered a "depression" phase: small investors are exiting, while large players are quietly accumulating. He expects selective capital flows—primarily into the top 20 and stablecoins, rather than across the board.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season requires massive monetary issuance, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. According to his estimates, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My View: Prepare, But Without Euphoria
I lean toward the idea that we are on the verge of a significant move. Selling pressure has reached historical lows, and the altcoin season index is very close to the threshold. However, it is important to understand: the growth will be selective. Do not expect all coins to surge simultaneously. Investors should focus on projects with strong fundamentals and real-world applications. The altcoin season is near, but it will be for the prepared.