Altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows: is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory yet highly telling signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has dropped to a low not seen since 2020. On the other hand, according to an alternative indicator, net selling outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. This data divergence is a classic sign of an impending turning point.
Two CryptoQuant Indicators: A Clear Picture
Analyzing on-chain data, we see that CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching a critical level. It currently stands at 18.48. Historically, when this indicator rises above 20, the market enters a phase of active capital rotation from BTC and ETH into altcoins. In other words, there is barely a point and a half left to the threshold.
At the same time, the difference between spot buying and selling volumes of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has fallen to a five-year low. This means that sellers on the spot market have nearly exhausted their potential. CryptoQuant analysts note that we are witnessing 15 months of continuous net selling — an unprecedented duration. However, such extremes often precede reversals.
Analyst Opinions Diverge: To Wait or Not to Wait?
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will not fall to new all-time lows. In his assessment, the market has entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing in a highly selective manner.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a full-fledged altcoin season requires large-scale money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario should not be expected before 2028–2029.
Analyst's Comment: The divergence between the historical low in selling pressure and the rising Altcoin Season Index is a powerful bullish signal. However, I agree that the upcoming season will not be a universal rally, but an extremely selective movement. Investors should prepare for capital to flow only into projects with real liquidity and fundamentals, not into "junk" coins. Current levels represent a zone of increased risk, but also potentially high reward for those who can wait.