Altcoin selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows: two CryptoQuant indicators point to an imminent market reversal
The altcoin market is sending extremely contradictory, yet all the more significant signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has plummeted to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, the CryptoQuant Altcoin Season Index over 180 days is steadily approaching a threshold value that historically precedes the start of a full-fledged altcoin season.
Two Faces of One Market: Sales Drying Up, Capital Poised for Rotation
Analyzing on-chain data, I see a unique picture. The indicator of the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has fallen to a five-year low. This means that sellers on spot markets have virtually exhausted their potential — net selling pressure has persisted for 15 consecutive months. Such a prolonged period of continuous net sales is an extreme phenomenon that cannot last forever.
At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly reached zero, but then reversed downward again and continued its decline in subsequent months. However, this very low, comparable to the bottom levels of 2020, is a classic sign of retail seller capitulation and the beginning of accumulation by large players.
At the same time, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index stands at 18.48. Based on my observations, historically, the altcoin season "awakens" when this index surpasses the 20 level. We are just one step away from it. The market has not yet entered a phase of active capital rotation, but all the prerequisites for this have already been formed.
Analyst Opinions Divided: Bullish Scenario vs. Caution
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will be able to avoid new all-time lows. According to his assessment, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small investors are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts a selective capital rotation — growth will be concentrated in the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, rather than across the entire market.
However, trader Crypto Kid is more skeptical. He believes that for a real altcoin season, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle, massive monetary issuance is necessary. In his opinion, such a scenario cannot be expected before 2028–2029.
My expert assessment: I lean towards the view that historical precedents speak for themselves. The drop in selling pressure to 2020 lows is not a coincidence, but a fundamental signal of exhaustion in liquidations. The altcoin market is in an accumulation phase, and as soon as the macroeconomic backdrop (rate cuts or a new wave of liquidity) provides a trigger, we will see a sharp and selective rise. The index at 18.48 is the final step before the start. Investors should be prepared for volatility, but it is precisely such periods that precede the most profitable phases of the cycle.