Crypto news

Mining in Russia has finally ceased to be an activity for a select few "gray" cartels. Since the basic law regulating the industry came into force at the end of 2024, the sector has received clear rules of the game. It is no longer an underground business, but a full-fledged sector of the economy that cannot be hidden—and, more importantly, its owners no longer need to do so.

Regulation: Bureaucracy as a Barrier, but Tax Reform as an Incentive

The key point of the new legislation is the mandatory inclusion in a special register for legal entities wishing to legally mine cryptocurrency. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6,000 kWh has been set, along with an obligation to report to the tax authorities. However, as practice shows, many small miners have faced bureaucratic difficulties and simply did not submit the documents. Throughout 2025, regulatory bodies adopted a wait-and-see approach, penalizing mainly for illegal connections to power grids rather than for the act of mining itself.

Paradoxically, the new system has proven beneficial for the players themselves. Previously, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset; now, it is only on net profit. Equipment can be depreciated: individuals can write off its cost in one reporting period, while legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can spread this process over 24 months or more. Expenses for electricity, hosting construction, repairs, and forced downtime are officially included in costs. In my estimation, in the first two years, the profit tax for many companies will be effectively zero. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks far more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

Impossible to Hide: Energy Consumption as a Marker

It is technically impossible to hide a crypto farm. Mining creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid, which is instantly detected by management companies. Anomalous electricity bills or illegal connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Large players, understanding this, have long since legalized. It is only a matter of time before the same measures are applied to everyone else still trying to operate in the shadows.

Bitcoin: Fundamental Cycle Target — $180–250 Thousand

In assessing the value of the primary digital asset, I rely solely on fundamental indicators. Information noise and statements by politicians are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation: over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself incorporates regular difficulty adjustments and a halving every four years. Over 17 years, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts for the start of the bull rally have had to be adjusted. The expected growth was supposed to begin in the fall of 2025, but on October 11, the market broke classical historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026, rather than at the end of last year. At the same time, the final price targets remain unchanged and are entirely based on a mathematical model. The minimum threshold is $180 thousand, the average figure is $250 thousand. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward halving.

Probability of an Extreme Scenario

There is also the risk of a "death spiral." If by the time of the halving the price drops to $130 thousand, and the production cost rises to $180 thousand, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be switched off in a single day. Due to the built-in difficulty adjustment rule, the time for generating new blocks would stretch significantly, triggering a cascading exit of miners from the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States, increasing the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the price as it approaches the critical threshold. I will adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.

Expert Opinion: The legalization of mining in Russia is not only a matter of fiscal discipline but also a powerful driver for technological development. Creating a transparent environment will attract large institutional investors to the country and reduce risks associated with energy consumption. For market participants, the most sensible step now is to fully legalize and take advantage of tax benefits before the regulator moves to stricter measures.