Altcoin selling pressure has collapsed to 2020 lows — alt season is on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending powerful, albeit contradictory, signals. CryptoQuant analytics record two key indicators that paint directly opposite pictures, but ultimately point to one thing: a trend change is closer than ever.
First indicator: spot selling pressure at a five-year low. The cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. This means that sellers on spot exchanges have been consistently and persistently dominating buyers. The indicator nearly reached zero at the start of 2025, then reversed downward again, continuing its decline in subsequent months. As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech notes, this is not a drawdown but 15 months of continuous net spot selling.
Altcoin Season Index: on the verge of awakening
The second indicator — the Altcoin Season Index (180 days) — shows the opposite trend. It currently sits at 18.48. Historically, the threshold for the start of an altcoin season is considered to be above 20. In other words, the market has not yet reached the point of capital rotation, but it is in close proximity. This is a classic accumulation pattern before a powerful move: selling pressure is extreme, but the season index is ready for a breakout.
Analysts are divided: who is right?
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing extremely selectively.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his view, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: CryptoQuant data is among the most reliable in the industry. The drop in selling pressure to 2020 lows is not just statistics but a historical precedent that preceded powerful altcoin rallies. The season index near the 20 threshold is a zone where the best entry points are formed. However, it is important to remember: the market has changed. Now, unlike in 2020, capital will not flow into everything indiscriminately, but only into projects with real fundamental value. Diversification and careful asset selection are the keys to success in this cycle.