Altcoin selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows — is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely interesting signals. Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint a diametrically opposite picture, yet this divergence may point to the approach of a long-awaited altcoin season.
First Signal: Historic Low in Selling Pressure
An indicator tracking the difference between altcoin buying and selling volumes (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to levels not seen since 2020. This means that on spot exchanges, sales have significantly outweighed purchases for an extended period. Moreover, according to another metric, net altcoin sales excluding BTC and ETH have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months. CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech emphasizes: "This is not about a drawdown. We are seeing 15 months of continuous net sales on spot exchanges." Such a prolonged period of selling pressure is an extremely rare phenomenon that has historically preceded a trend reversal.
Second Signal: Altcoin Season Index Nears Threshold
Contrary to the grim picture of sales, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index is steadily approaching a critical mark. It currently stands at 18.48, while the threshold for the start of a season is considered to be above 20. This suggests that capital is gradually beginning to flow from Bitcoin into altcoins, although a full-fledged rally has not yet occurred. The index has essentially returned to levels that historically preceded powerful alt seasons.
Analysts' Opinions Diverge
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. In his view, a significant part of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle, where small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that the increase in Bitcoin's dominance will come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Kid holds a more bearish outlook. He believes that a true altcoin season would require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. According to his estimates, such a scenario is not expected before 2028–2029.
My Analysis and Conclusions
I lean towards the view that we are in the final stage of accumulation. The selling pressure reaching a five-year low is a classic sign of retail investor capitulation, which is typically followed by a reversal. However, the current altcoin season, if it begins, will be fundamentally different: not all coins will surge. Capital will flow only into projects with real liquidity and strong fundamentals. Investors should prepare for a selective, rather than a total, rally.