CryptoQuant indicators point to an imminent start of the altcoin season: selling pressure has dropped to 2020 lows.
The altcoin market is sending powerful, albeit contradictory, signals. Analyzing on-chain metrics, I see that we are approaching a critical point. Selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to a five-year low — a level last seen in 2020. This suggests that sellers have nearly exhausted their potential, and buying volumes are beginning to dominate.
However, as is often the case in cryptocurrencies, not all indicators show a unidirectional movement. Alongside the drop in selling pressure, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is approaching the threshold of 20 points. It currently stands at 18.48. Historically, exceeding this mark signals the start of a full-fledged "altseason" — a period when capital begins to actively flow from Bitcoin into altcoins.
Two signals, one conclusion: accumulation before the breakout
At first glance, these two indicators contradict each other. On one hand, we see a multi-year low in selling, indicating seller exhaustion. On the other hand, the Altcoin Season Index is only approaching the threshold but has not yet crossed it. In reality, this is a classic accumulation pattern. Investors, especially large ones (whales), are quietly buying up assets without creating excessive market pressure. Net sales on spot exchanges have been ongoing for 15 consecutive months, but as analysts note, this is not a downturn but rather a prolonged process of asset redistribution.
My professional assessment: we are in the final phase of accumulation. The current situation resembles the end of 2020, when a prolonged period of calm and falling selling pressure was followed by a powerful altcoin rally. However, unlike that cycle, the current season is likely to be more selective. Capital will not flow indiscriminately into all projects but will focus on assets with strong fundamentals and real-world applications. Traders should prepare for volatility, not chaos, but rather structural growth in specific market sectors.