Altcoin selling pressure has hit 2020 lows: Is altcoin season on the horizon?
The altcoin market is sending contradictory but extremely important signals. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges has plummeted to levels not seen since 2020. On the other hand, the Altcoin Season Index from CryptoQuant is approaching threshold values that have historically preceded the start of a massive altcoin rally.
Two indicators — two pictures
My analysis of CryptoQuant data reveals an interesting dichotomy. The indicator for the total difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has fallen to a five-year low. This means that sellers on spot markets are dominating with unprecedented strength. The indicator nearly hit zero at the beginning of 2025, then reversed downward and continued to decline. As one analyst on the platform notes, we are observing 15 months of continuous net selling on the spot market. This is not a temporary dip, but a sustained trend.
However, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index paints a completely different picture. It currently sits at 18.48. Historically, the altcoin season "comes alive" when the value rises above 20. That is, the market has not yet reached the tipping point, but it is in close proximity to it. Capital is only preparing for a flow, but the flow itself has not yet begun.
Analyst opinions diverge
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, will be able to avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant part of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle: small players are exiting projects, while large holders are quietly accumulating assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will increase at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, with capital flowing very selectively.
On the other hand, trader Crypto Kid is more bearish. He believes that a true altcoin season will require massive money printing, similar to what launched the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario can be expected no earlier than 2028–2029.
My commentary
The situation resembles a compressed spring. Record selling pressure and the altcoin season index approaching a critical level is a classic accumulation pattern before a reversal. However, the key question lies in the source of liquidity. Without the massive capital inflow we saw in previous cycles, the altcoin season may not be a universal rally, but an extremely selective movement in individual projects with strong fundamentals. The market is likely awaiting not an "explosion," but a gradual redistribution of capital.