Altcoin selling pressure has plummeted to 2020 lows — altcoin season on the horizon
The altcoin market is sending strong signals of a trend change. Two key indicators from CryptoQuant paint a contradictory yet highly revealing picture. On one hand, selling pressure on spot exchanges for altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) has dropped to a five-year low — levels last seen in 2020. On the other hand, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index is steadily approaching threshold values that historically preceded major rallies.
Two Signals from CryptoQuant: Sales Are Drying Up, But Capital Has Not Yet Shifted
The first indicator tracks the cumulative difference between altcoin buy and sell volumes, excluding BTC and ETH. Its drop to a minimum since 2020 is not just a number. It is a direct indication that sellers on spot markets have nearly exhausted their potential. Buyers are beginning to dominate, albeit not aggressively yet. As CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech noted, we are observing 15 months of continuous net selling on the spot market — and this process appears to be nearing its end.
The second indicator — the 180-day Altcoin Season Index — currently stands at 18.48. Historically, altcoin season "awakens" when this figure surpasses the 20 mark. The threshold is literally just a step away. This suggests that the market is in an accumulation phase: capital has not yet flowed en masse into altcoins, but the groundwork has already been laid.
Analyst Opinions Diverge: Some Expect a Surge, Others a Protracted Depression
Alphractal founder João Wedson believes that many altcoins, which have significantly depreciated in 2025 and early 2026, may avoid new all-time lows. According to him, a significant portion of the market has already entered the "depression" phase of the current cycle — at this stage, small players exit projects while large holders quietly accumulate assets. He predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will grow at the expense of the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins, but this does not mean the entire market is doomed. Capital will flow extremely selectively.
However, there is also an opposing viewpoint. Trader Crypto Kid is bearish. He argues that a true altcoin season would require massive money printing, similar to what triggered the 2020–2021 cycle. In his opinion, such a scenario is unlikely before 2028–2029.
My analysis: The current configuration of indicators is a rare case where technical and fundamental signals align. Selling pressure at lows and the altcoin season index at the threshold — this is a classic prerequisite for a reversal. However, I would not expect a total rally across all coins. The market has become much more mature and selective. The altcoin season will likely not be a universal celebration, but a targeted movement in a few strong projects with real liquidity and an active community.